Many people suggested me to write finance views, so here is my first finance post. I love data and statistics, Everything I write in this blogs will be backed by data. As a tax payers, we need to know every single rupee spent. Regarding the blog title we will get to know at the end.
Terminologies:
CAPEX: Capital Expenditure, It drive the infrastructure growth( roads, railway etc.)
Fiscal deficit= Total expenditure – Total income/Receipts, in 2025 50L crore was total budget and 35Lcrore was total Receipts. 15L crore deficit , 4.4% of GDP.
Receipts: according to 2025 data 35L crore. Tax revenue (28L crore), dividends, divestments, loan recovery etc.
Tax revenue: Corporate tax(10L crore) + individual tax payer (14L crore) + indirect taxes, GST (14L crore)
Problem with 2025 budget (Capex)
In 2024 budget capex estimate was 11.11L crore. On 1st Feb 2025,FM announced capex will be nearly same 11.21L crore. Infra index itself tanked 20% on that month. If you have invested in railway stocks you will be down by 30% at least. From last five years , we have seen minimum 10% increase in capex, suddenly we saw no capex increase. Why ? They provided income tax cut, costed 1L crore to govt. money doesn’t print on tree, Somewhere adjusted.
2026 problems, New expenditures
Govt itself admitted 8th pay commission is going to cost 1.8L crore minimum every year, but the catch is payments will start from 2027. So not much to worry for this budget. However, The Unified Pension Scheme(UPS) officially kicked off on April 1, 2025 for central govt employees. The “GST 2.0” reforms (effective from late 2025) moved many middle-class items (electronics,small cars, healthcare) into lower brackets. UPS and GST cuts going to impact 0.6L crore. Also govt spent 3L crore last year for “SPECIAL INITIATIVES AND BUDGETARY SUPPORT FOR EMPLOYMENT OF SC, ST, OBC AND MINORITIES”. Also govt is obliged to increase this by 10% every year.
What will be good budget ?
Divestment. Yes, govt had been planning for divestment in PSUs, mainly banks like UCO,IDBI,IOB etc. for long. But it always hit by allegation of selling all PSU by oppositions or by unions. With out divestment deficit will increase. If capex doesn’t cross 12L crore this year, you may consider exiting your railway stocks. Govt it self is delusion how much to divest, when to divest.
Now you might have got the idea why blog heading named as such. If you want me to write more financial blog please comment, share and give feedback.
Crisp, clear & quite informational. Would love to read more updates on the same. Also it would be great if you share your POV as well.
Keep up the good work 🙂